India has managed high government debt-to-GDP, a slowing domestic revenue engine, lower household savings and a more hostile geopolitical environment separately in the past. But together, they threaten to undo the growth narrative on which today's optimism rests, warns Debashis Basu.
India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday said tax cuts in the current fiscal has dented India's revenue growth, leaving less scope for fiscal policy support for the economy.
Foreign investors have aggressively sold off Indian equities, withdrawing over 48,213 crore in the first 10 days of April, following a record 1.17 lakh crore outflow in March, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, rising crude oil prices, and global inflation concerns.
India's digital economy is projected to constitute nearly 20 per cent of the nation's GDP by 2030, fuelled by a growth rate twice as fast as the overall economy, according to a senior government official.
Indian economy remains a key driver of global growth on the back of sound macroeconomic fundamentals and prudent policies, the Reserve Bank said on Monday. In its bi-annual Financial Stability Report (FSR), the central bank also said elevated economic and trade policy uncertainties are testing the resilience of the global economy and the financial system.
A new report by Google and Deloitte projects India's e-commerce market will nearly triple to USD 250 billion by 2030, driven by Gen Z shoppers, quick commerce expansion, and AI.
A poor monsoon could drag overall economic growth and compound the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy.
When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets.
Aviation stocks experienced a significant surge following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which led to a sharp decline in crude oil prices. This development has positively impacted stock markets and the broader economic outlook for India.
On Friday, January 31, 2025, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey 2024-2025 in the Lok Sabha.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated that it is premature to comment on the tariff changes announced by the United States, adding that the commerce ministry is currently reviewing the situation.
India's manufacturing sector growth slowed to a four-year low in March, impacted by cost pressures, competition, market uncertainty, and the Middle East conflict, according to the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI.
S Mahendra Dev, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, expressed confidence that the rupee would stabilise around the 92-93 level against the US dollar, despite geopolitical tensions, and that foreign investment flows would return.
The World Bank has affirmed India's strong position to withstand the current global energy shock, citing high foreign exchange reserves, fiscal space, and low inflation as key buffers supporting continued growth despite international headwinds.
The Israel-Iran conflict has entered a 'decisive phase' after the United States bombed three major Iranian nuclear sites Sunday morning, feel strategic affairs experts with some of them arguing it was Washington, DC's 'responsibility' to not get involved in the military standoff.
A new report suggests that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could significantly impact India's GDP growth and inflation.
India's foreign exchange reserves decreased by USD 10.288 billion to USD 688.058 billion during the week ending March 27, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). This decline follows a previous decrease and comes after the reserves reached an all-time high in February.
A foreign brokerage warns that sustained crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel could push India's inflation above the RBI's tolerance level, potentially triggering interest rate hikes.
Amidst escalating tensions in West Asia, India voices strong concerns over the safety of its nationals and the potential disruption to energy supplies, urging dialogue and diplomacy for a swift resolution.
In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below normal monsoon rains for India this year, citing the potential emergence of El Nino conditions. This could significantly impact the country's agriculture-dependent economy.
India's foreign exchange reserves decreased by USD 7.052 billion to USD 709.759 billion in the week ending March 13, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). This decline follows a previous drop and comes after reserves reached an all-time high in February.
'The real risk is not that AI will fail to transform India's economy.'
'The risk is that it already is -- while our measurement systems continue to look the other way,' observes Nishant Sahdev, a theoretical physicist at the University of North Carolina.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to a strengthening dollar, high crude oil prices, and foreign fund outflows amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Real GDP growth surprised on the upside in 2025, but weaker nominal growth, trade uncertainty, and soft demand signal a bumpier road ahead.
West Asia conflict triggers sharp sell-off in Indian markets, with realty, banking and auto stocks leading losses amid energy shock fears.
The United States Trade Representative (USTR) has expressed concerns that India's Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Act, particularly the lack of a deemed consent mechanism for credit information companies, and the Information Technology (IT) Rules of 2021, along with frequent internet shutdowns, could negatively impact the ability of US companies to operate and trade in India.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 21,000 crore (around $2.3 billion) from Indian equities over the last four trading sessions amid deteriorating global risk sentiment triggered by the West Asia crisis.
India's new manufacturing project announcements more than halved in the fourth quarter of FY26, falling 60 per cent sequentially and 78 per cent year-on-year to approximately 1.7 trillion, driven by global uncertainties, geopolitical conflicts in West Asia, and existing unutilised manufacturing capacity.
In a high-scoring contest that went down to the final ball, Rashid returned figures of 3 for 17, turning the game in Titans' favour just when Delhi looked set to chase down the target.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled in early trade on Monday, with the 30-share BSE Sensex falling 1,613.09 points and the 50-share NSE Nifty plunging 495 points, as the failure of US-Iran negotiations heightened concerns of a prolonged conflict driving crude oil prices sharply higher. Track Sensex, Nifty50 movement and key market drivers for April 13, 2026.
The chairman of maritime company Safesea Group has described the attack on the US-owned crude oil tanker Safesea Vishnu, which resulted in the death of an Indian crew member, as "deliberate and calculated". He emphasised the need for governments to ensure the safety of commercial shipping lanes and seafarers.
The embassy also said that the exit must be undertaken in coordination with the mission.
'The West Asia or the Gulf crisis has shown that what we develop as national infrastructure when things are not as bad as they could be, we forget to plan for adversities.'
In February, the BBC reported that Manchester Super Giants, MI London, Southern Brave, and Sunrisers Leeds would not consider signing Pakistani players for the United Kingdom-based competition amid tensions between neighbours India and Pakistan.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the Lok Sabha on the West Asia crisis, expressing concern over its impact on the global economy and assuring the safety of Indian citizens in the region.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the Lok Sabha on the West Asia crisis, expressing concern over its impact on the global economy and assuring the safety of Indian citizens in the region.
For India, much is at stake: Crucial energy supplies traversing the Strait of Hormuz, the fate of its 10 million citizens living and working in West Asia -- who send generous remittances home -- and its major trade links with the region.
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